It looks like it might be hard to replace the cover if I mess up.
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What are your options? Either fix that one or find a replacement?
Unless I'm missing something, the damage doesn't look too bad.
Truth be told, If it were still summer, you could probably drape the bumper cover over a sawhorse in the sun, and gravity combined with the heat from the sun on that black paint would probably almost pull it back into shape.
I'm pretty sure you're not going to damage anything with a hair dryer. Probably not even with a heat gun.
I'm not too far from you. Hwy 92 at Brownsville. I'm having some (hopefully minor) health issues at the moment, but once I get an "all clear", maybe I can mess with it. Will be a few weeks.
Here's a video. Not too hard...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qjb4I9kTy0Here's the repaired Miata bumper. It was crushed down over the driver's side parking light. If you look carefully, you can see the scratches under the light. It wasn't even repainted before I put it on the car.